The Supercars Championship is assertive on a knife bend with one accident remaining, and Speedcafe.com has produced an alternate calculator to advice you actuate which way the appellation will fall.
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Last year’s runner-up Scott McLaughlin takes a 14-point advance over 2016 best Shane van Gisbergen to Newcastle, acceptation that the appellation chase will acceptable still be animate at the alpha of Sunday’s final chase of the season.
For McLaughlin to finer allowance the appellation on Saturday, he charge accomplishment aboriginal or additional and van Gisbergen charge abort to finish.
If that does not happen, there are any cardinal of scenarios which could comedy out.
As was the case at Pukekohe, if van Gisbergen is to win Chase 30 on the Saturday and McLaughlin accomplishment second, the latter’s advance will be snipped to aloof two points.
Should that appear to pass, Sunday’s Chase 31 becomes a simple case of he who finishes college acceptable the champion.
That claim still applies if van Gisbergen is the aftermost finisher in Chase 31, behindhand of how abounding finishers there are.
The arbitrary book of the championship baton still accepting to exhausted the last-placed ‘chaser’ applies in any case aback there are beneath than three credibility amid the two drivers appear Saturday night.
For all the added possibilities, download Speedcafe.com’s Championship Calculator and analysis for yourself what the analytical finishing position in on Sunday, based on what you anticipate will appear on Saturday; artlessly access a position (1 to 26 or ‘DNF’) in anniversary of the orange boxes.
You can alike accumulate the calculator beside you and amend it during Saturday’s aboriginal 250km chase to see which way the championship is swinging.
CLICK HERE to download the chargeless Speedcafe.com 2018 Supercars Championship Calculator.
McLaughlin’s slight bend over van Gisbergen on the credibility table is reflected in the added statistics for the year to date.
The Shell V-Power Racing disciplinarian has eight chase wins to his Red Bull Holden Racing Team rival’s seven, accepting able on Armor All Pole Position 13 times compared to van Gisbergen’s five.
McLaughlin has, already again, been the criterion qualifier in the Virgin Australia Supercars Championship with an boilerplate starting position of 3.45, added than two positions bigger than van Gisbergen’s boilerplate alpha (Figures accommodate Sunday’s Qualifying and Top 10 Shootout on the Gold Coast, afore the chase was done out).
The Triple Eight disciplinarian has clawed aback best of that arena aback the lights go out, however, with an boilerplate finishing position of 4.46, which is alone 0.64 positions lower than McLaughlin’s average.
While 0.64 positions still seems like a lot for a 14-point allowance over the advance of 28 completed races, it is noteworthy that his equal-second-worst after-effects of the season, 13th position, came in two of the Melbourne 400 races, which calculation for beneath than contest at any added accident of the year due to their beneath ambit and the four-race format.
Van Gisbergen has alone one added accomplishment alfresco the top 10, aback he had a anchor antithesis bar abortion at Symmons Plains and managed to adviser Car #97 home in 25th position.
It has been his best cher chase of the division by a continued way, auctioning him from aboriginal to fifth in the championship as he gave up 108 credibility to chase runner-up McLaughlin; at atomic 60 added credibility than he gave up to Car #17 in any added chase all season.
While van Gisbergen’s 24 top sixes and a 10th position accomplishment in 28 contest is impressive, McLaughlin has an amazing 27 top 10s out of 28.
His added result, a 15th in Chase 5 at Albert Park, came afterwards an off aboriginal in the chase followed by a action on wet tyres which didn’t pay dividends.
To accomplish the point clear, neither disciplinarian has bootless to accomplishment any chase all year, and van Gisbergen is 30 credibility the bigger for his adaptation job in Tasmania.
Despite anniversary accepting their about hot streaks and dry spells, no added than 161 points, agnate to aloof over bisected an event, has afar the fast Kiwis all year.
If the event’s abbreviate history is any guide, annihilation could appear in Newcastle.
However, it is account because that van Gisbergen has tended to accomplish analogously bigger on artery circuits than McLaughlin, with an boilerplate accomplishment of 0.20 positions worse (5.20 against 5.40).
If we abolish Bathurst and Albert Park, however, accustomed that they are arguably not ‘true’ artery circuits, the metric tips in van Gisbergen’s favour with an boilerplate accomplishment of 3.00 against McLaughlin’s 4.80.
Furthermore, three of van Gisbergen’s wins accept appear from artery circuits (two in Adelaide and one in Townsville, aback he additionally accomplished additional on the Saturday), compared to one for McLaughlin in the Albert Park opener.
The Armor All Top 10 Shootout additionally comes into comedy on Sunday, and it is that architecture in which van Gisbergen has accomplished three of his bristles poles compared to aloof one for McLaughlin, admitting McLaughlin authoritative all eight shootouts and van Gisbergen missing out on one.
All in all, it sets up a alluring showdown aback the Coates Hire Newcastle 500 begins this Friday.
CLICK HERE to download the Speedcafe.com Supercars Championship infographic.
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