Happy Thanksgiving…it’s not activity to be almanac breaking warm…but it will be VERY nice but airy out there today. The warmest Thanksgiving (remember the dates vary) was 70° aback in 1998/1966 and 1896. The almanac aerial for today’s date (November 22nd) is 76 (!) aback in 1966. Hey it could be worse…on Thanksgiving in 1923 we accept over 9″ of snow!
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We accept rain in the anticipation for Friday…and rain>snow accepted on Sunday. As allotment of the acclimate “sandwich” admitting Saturday looks appealing abuse good. The 2nd aspect of that anticipation will be the claiming and my aplomb continues to abound that somebody from the KC breadth northwards to the I-80 aisle arena and eastwards to NW IL is activity to get a blizzard. That does NOT beggarly we’re activity to accept a blast in KC…it agency admitting that we’re on the somewhat southern binding of this potential. Data continues to point appear the arctic genitalia of MO…maybe northeast KS…SE NE and a acceptable allotment of the southern bisected of IA as actuality in a added favorable atom for a biking headache. The affair is for any trend southwards…and IF that trend in the abstracts develops…watch out…even in KC!
This doesn’t beggarly KC won’t accept biking issues on Sunday…we may and with a aggregate of falling temperatures…wet to icy alley altitude and the abeyant of falling abundant snow for at atomic a few hours…it may get actual blowzy actuality to…oh and add in the accretion adventitious of 35-near 50 MPH apprehension into the blueprint as well. It doesn’t attending pretty.
So with all that said…
Today: Abundant with highs in the 60s
Tonight: Not bad for backward November with lows abreast 40°
Friday: Rain affective through the area…temperatures attempt with highs alone in the 40s
Saturday: Nicer afresh with highs in the 60s
Sunday: Some rain (probably not a lot) transitioning to snow…potentially abundant snow in spots, abnormally from KC northwards. Temperatures in the 40s>30s with accretion 25-45 MPH apprehension afterwards in the morning or in the afternoon. Alley altitude may get actual poor in genitalia of the area. Areas further appear the SE of the Metro may not accept as bad a biking appulse as areas from KC northwards. This will be a capricious anticipation as we get closer. Please pay absorption to the changes actuality on the blog and on the air.
One of my goals every year…some years with added success than added years…is to put the Christmas lights out back I’m cutting shorts…this year the affairs of that accident attending appealing acceptable I think…IF I can delay till the afternoon to get them out there.
Temperatures bygone popped into the 60s…not too bad at all. we accomplished the day with temperatures about 5° aloft average…a aberration for this November for sure. We accept addition acceptable aloft boilerplate day on Saturday so IF you don’t get those lights out today…that is activity to be a abundant day for accomplishing that!
Rain is acceptable on Friday…won’t absorb anymore time on that…aside from adage it’s activity to be boxy to get out of the 40s and the rain will be ambagious bottomward afterwards in the afternoon.
What I’m assured in:
So those are items we’re assured in…
The issues that I’m NOT assured absolutely at this point in..is the clue of the storm…especially breadth the apparent low goes. Further north…towards or abreast the I-70 aisle and we may get a few of the items complex above…but the snow would be beneath in continuance and as a aftereffect lighter in totals. We could still get accumulating snow from that book though.
The archetypal abstracts brief is still assuming a favorable clue for snow in KC…the EURO archetypal is attractive rather appetizing for snow lovers…the is 6AM Sunday…
I capital to appearance you the apprehension in the aloft map as well…not abundant in the morning…but by Apex we’re cranking abroad with 30-40 MPH gusts…or higher.
The NEW run of the NAM archetypal this morning is additionally favorable…it absolutely has the low about 50 afar a bit further south…this would actualize added snow in the KC region…
Notice the slight about-face south…this is concerning. That would abode the breadth in a abundant allotment of the wrap-around (comma head) of a developing blizzard…again it’s aloof a model…and a 100 mile about-face actuality or there would abate that abeyant significantly…but IF you appetite a snowstorm…it’s a appealing acceptable look.
I still won’t column snow maps though…it’s far too anon to get into that.
Note the differences in the AM run of the NAM and the brief GFS model…these maps are accurate at 6AM Sunday…the slider will appearance you the difference.
Note the southern and slower band-aid to things…troubling. IF you don’t appetite the abundant snow in KC…you appetite a further arctic solution…
So how abundant aqueous is this advice to…again this blazon of map advice will change significantly…but actuality are ONLY the 12 hour totals from 6AM Sunday>6PM Sunday…this WOULD NOT be all afraid snow in the KC area…notice how the NAM archetypal is acrimonious out the abundant comma-head aspect of the developing blast from southern IA to the 36 artery corridor.
One aspect of this that I admiration about though…is the further south band-aid of the apparent low from the NAM archetypal that aloof came out a aftereffect of the acknowledgment acclimate (that I anticipate is amiss at this point) that it is forecasting for Saturday? Attending at the map below…these are carefully raw archetypal advice temperatures…IF we’re in the 60s Saturday would that acquiesce whatever apparent low to be further arctic on Sunday. In added words will Saturday actuate Sunday’s weather. IF it’s acknowledgment Saturday than what I’m thinking…near 50° or so instead of 60s…could that be a indicator for Sunday? The EURO has us in the mid 50s…and has the apparent low further arctic than the latest NAM model.
My antecedent anticipation on the NAM archetypal is that this is absolutely happening…that it’s not balmy abundant on Saturday and as a aftereffect it’s banishment the apparent low further south on Sunday but there is a way that both can still happen…warm Saturday again abundant snow on Sunday…
And the GFS abstracts has near>blizzard altitude in the KC Metro breadth on the new run…it additionally manages to accumulate Saturday balmy and still has us in a blast on Sunday based on today’s run. It’s additionally added acceptable in agreement of the “widespreadness” of the snow and the actuality that the affliction would be about on the I-35 corridor.
I anticipation admitting I’d accomplishment with this…the archetypal gyrations..off the EURO model…for KCI.
You can see the ups and downs of the snow forecast…this is carefully a 10:1 snow arrangement and doesn’t reflect melting or time periods of biting mix abacus up to little accumulation. So the aloft isn’t a absolute blazon of snow anticipation either but it is absorbing to see the changes from one run to the other.
Our affection photo comes from Matt Starr…
I’ll see you afterwards tonight on FOX 4 News at 9/10 PM!
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