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“They could calmly lose a ample allocation of that,” says Dale Rosenthal, a accounts assistant at the University of Illinois at Chicago. Mr. Rosenthal is a above architect for Greenwich-based Continued Appellation Capital Management L.P., an absolute-return armamentarium that produced 40% anniversary allotment afore it burst in 1998.

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TRS additionally has fabricated big bets on the movement of Brazilian absorption ante vis-à-vis U.S. absorption ante that Mr. Rosenthal calls “crazy” because the beck of 11% crop payments is like accepting “hazard pay” for a chancy bet.

Before he larboard the lath in September, above TRS Trustee Sidney Marder apprenticed the arrangement to bigger acquaint associates about alien investments in the fixed- assets portfolio to abstain afflictive revelations later.

The bazaar amount of swaps in the portfolio was bottomward 30% from its abject amount as of Nov. 28, according to abstracts acquired by Crain’s beneath a Freedom of Information Act request.

“In the case of our derivatives, they are not continuing abandoned as a bet, to use that term,” Mr. Ingram says. “They abide and are commutual with a continued position, either a band or article else. They’re a barrier and not a bet.”

UNDER PRESSURE

The TRS acceptance of 8.5% allotment puts the alimony beneath burden to approach to the higher-risk, higher-reward investments, alimony experts say. A acknowledgment of 8% or college is “very difficult to accomplish in this market,” says Julia Bonafede, admiral of Wilshire Associates. And that’s doubly accurate for underfunded plans, she says: “They’re activity to be attractive to the advance portfolio to do added of the work, which agency that they’re activity to accept to booty on added risk.”

Only 10 of 126 U.S. alimony affairs anticipation 8.5% anniversary allotment on investments, like TRS. Since 2008, 19 states accept cut their assumptions, abbreviation the average to 8% today, according to the Essex, Conn.-based National Assn. of Accompaniment Retirement Administrators.

TRS is due for its five-year analysis of assumptions abutting year. Mr. Ingram won’t say whether it is acceptable to lower the assumption, deferring to a analysis action that includes opinions from consultants and a vote by the board. Its capital consultant, R. V. Kuhns & Associates Inc. of Portland, Ore., afresh said allotment are added acceptable to be 7.75% over the abutting 10 years. Above trustee Mr. Marder says he favors abbreviation the assumption, admitting he adds that TRS’ 25-member advance agents is accomplishing a acceptable job.

If the plan bargain the affected amount of return, it would accept to access its declared liabilities to awning the abate advance income. That would aftereffect in “political pressure,” a TRS agent says, because the accompaniment would accept to access its contributions.

Another actuarial action alleged “smoothing,” which averages assets over bristles years, has fabricated the plan arise healthier, too, because the appulse of the losses in 2008 and 2009 is reduced. TRS adopted this metric in 2009. Using fair bazaar amount after smoothing, the adjourned arrangement block to 46.1%, from 46.5%, as of June 30. The aberration was 7.9 allotment credibility a year earlier.

“If we had accounting that appropriately reflected the amount of these promises, as a association we would be able to accomplish added abreast decisions about allotment the allowances that we accomplish and additionally about what akin of allowances we offer,” Mr. Rauh says.

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