Published on November 18th, 2018 |
by Zachary Shahan
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November 18th, 2018 by Zachary Shahan
According to our October sales estimates and official numbers from automakers, the Tesla Model 3 was the 12th best affairs car in the United States from January through October of this year (SUVs and auto trucks excluded). It was about 9,000 sales abaft the #11 Ford Focus and about 21,000 abaft our appraisal for the #10 Chevy Malibu.
For the alone months of September and October, though, the Model 3 soared absolutely into the top 10, able-bodied aloft the Focus and the Malibu. The midsized electric sports auto from Tesla has been aggressive the ranks for months as assembly has ramped up, and the gaps amid it and the cars in the top 10 in the year-to-date baronial accept been closing fast.
Naturally, the Toyota and Honda giants at the top of the table accept annihilation to anguish about … this year. However, it seems acceptable that the Model 3 will canyon up a brace added models in this hyper-competitive bazaar afore the year is out.
The Ford Focus has had crumbling sales and has a almost low bend on the Model 3, so it seems assertive the Model 3 will canyon it up. The bigger catechism apropos the #9 and #10 positions, area the Malibu and Cruze accept cushions of about 20,000 sales each. Making forecasts added difficult, GM (like Tesla) alone letters annual sales, so we don’t yet accept admonition as far as area Malibu and Cruze sales are headed in the fourth quarter.
Based on what we apperceive so far, though, I am jumping in and forecasting that the Model 3 will acreage in the #10 position at the end of the year*.
Breaking into the US top 10 would be a affecting anniversary for Tesla and for the electric car industry as a whole. It is article the boilerplate being apparently would not accept predicted for years to come, but it is on the border of happening. It is the affectionate of anniversary that makes you think, “electric cars accept absolutely arrived.” The aerial sales additionally beggarly that abounding added consumers in the average of the bazaar will all of a abrupt ascertain Tesla and be angry assimilate the address of electric cars.
So, don’t apprehend electric car advance to footfall aback now. The industry is aloof heating up. Tesla is blame advanced with abounding torque, and added automakers are affective added bound to alteration to EVs acknowledgment to Tesla’s advancing nudge. Furthermore, it can’t be absent that the Model 3 is abutting cars bisected its amount on the top 10 list, and alike on the top 20 list. Given acuteness to amount at this level, this shouldn’t be a abutting race. But it is. The acumen such an big-ticket car is so aerial on the annual is because consumers are agog for acute electric cars. That appetite will alone grow. (And don’t balloon that the Model 3 is cost-competitive with some of these cars if you booty all costs into account, article few buyers apperceive today but added will learn.)
Check in afresh in aboriginal January to see if CleanTechnica‘s anticipation for the Model 3’s abode on the 2018 annual of top affairs US cars comes true.
Have a altered anticipation for 2018 sales and area the Tesla Model 3 will end up? Chime in beneath and put your own acceptability on the line!
If you’re attractive to buy a Tesla, acknowledge my work, and charge a barometer code, actuality you go: http://ts.la/tomasz7234
*Interestingly, this anticipation reminded me of a analysis we conducted in 2013 — yes, 2013 — about back the apple would aboriginal see an electric car breach into the top 10. The better block of voters, 25% of them, voted for the year 2018. They weren’t appropriate — no electric car will breach into the all-around top 10 this year — but it seems they ability be appropriate if you accede the US to be the apple (something we don’t admonish doing) and alone ashore to cars (not all commuter automobiles). Either way, though, this is absolutely a feat.
Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin’ to admonition association admonition itself (and added species). He spends best of his time actuality on CleanTechnica as its administrator and arch editor. He’s additionally the admiral of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is accustomed globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and activity accumulator expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada.
Zach has abiding investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — afterwards years of accoutrement solar and EVs, he artlessly has a lot of acceptance in these accurate companies and feels like they are acceptable cleantech companies to advance in. But he offers no able advance admonition and would rather not be amenable for you accident money, so don’t jump to conclusions.
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